Wheat and soybean prices reach two-year highs due to the impact of the Middle East war

The international grain markets have once again come under the influence of geopolitics. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the intensification of the war between Russia and Ukraine, and new trade tensions driven by the United States have led to a sharp rise in the prices of wheat, soybeans, and corn, in a scenario of increasing uncertainty about global supply.

According to the latest weekly report from the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), prepared by Ana Rubicondi, Facundo Pennino, Matías Contardi, Emilce Terré, and Julio Calzada, wheat and soybeans reached their highest levels in the last two years, while corn also consolidated a sustained recovery.

Wheat reaches three-year highs

Wheat was one of the crops that reacted most to the international scenario. In Chicago, the price reached $259 per ton, the highest value since 2023, after accumulating increases of between 7% and 9% since early July.

The main factor behind this movement was the deterioration of the geopolitical context. The breakdown of the truce between the United States and Iran raised the risk over energy trade routes, while the conflict between Russia and Ukraine added new difficulties for agricultural trade in the Black Sea.

In particular, the temporary closure of the Kerch Strait complicated the exit of goods from Russia, one of the world's largest wheat exporters. As a result, the consulting firm Sovecon reduced its estimate of Russian exports for July by 25%.

This scenario is compounded by production problems in Europe. High temperatures and water deficits affected the French harvest and led to new downward revisions of production in the bloc.

In the Argentine market, the international rebound also began to translate into prices. Contracts for delivery in December 2026 and January 2027 reached the highest values of the year and stimulated early price fixing, which multiplied by eight the average of the previous weeks.

Corn gains momentum amid demand and weather

Corn also showed a strong recovery during July, although driven by a combination of local and international factors.

In Argentina, the harvest is progressing over 78% of the planted area, with a delay of 9.1 percentage points compared to the average of the last five years due to rains and high grain humidity.

Despite the delays, external demand remains strong. During the first week of July, shipping commitments reached 3.4 million tons, and exports for the month could exceed 4.8 million, one of the highest records of the year.

Export pressure was also reflected in prices. The board price rose to $190 per ton, while in Chicago, the cereal advanced to $182.4, up from the $165 recorded at the beginning of the month.

Globally, the European situation also adds uncertainty. The USDA reduced its corn production estimate for the European Union and raised the import needs of the bloc, while the condition of crops in France remains well below that observed a year ago.

Soybeans surpass $450 again

Soybeans also found strong support in the energy market. The rebound in oil, which returned to above $90 per barrel due to tensions in the Middle East, improved the outlook for biodiesel production and strengthened demand for oilseeds.

In this context, soybeans reached $455 per ton in Chicago, the highest level in over two years. Unlike wheat, the oilseed also received a boost from demand. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), China has already purchased 2.26 million tons of U.S. soybeans for the 2026/27 campaign, in a context where North American exports continue to be relatively low and domestic demand maintains strong competition for available goods.

For the Rosario Stock Exchange, this renewed buyer interest allowed soybeans to consolidate a new price level above that observed during the first half of the year.

The United States adds pressure with new tariffs

A new trade front has been added to the war scenario. The Trump administration announced a new tariff scheme under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, with additional rates of between 10% and 12.5% for products from about 60 trading partners.

Argentina was subject to a minimum additional tariff of 10%, although several strategic products were exempted, including beef, crude oil, and lithium carbonate. In contrast, other exports such as bottled wine and honey were indeed affected by the new scheme.

For the BCR, the combination of geopolitical conflicts, climatic problems, logistical restrictions, and new trade barriers maintains high uncertainty about global grain trade and explains much of the recovery shown by international prices in recent weeks.

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